If this were a card game, ecumenism would have to be the joker. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to identify the direction many trends are taking, but these days things ecumenical are fraught with far too many imponderables. As the Episcopal and Lutheran churches inch toward a possible concordat leading to full communion, one Lutheran bishop has wondered aloud whether we are thinking of uniting in order to be able to die together. Such cynicism illustrates the confusion or the malaise at the heart of traditional, organic moves toward Christian unity.

Yet even while Christian traditions work toward closer cooperation with each other, individual congregations are splintering off to join other, often new, churches. The Charismatic Episcopal Church, an amalgam of former Episcopalians, pentecostals and others is a case in point. Could it be that such fragmentation is one of the first steps in a much larger realignment of the denominations?

Meanwhile, grass-roots relationships between congregations of varying traditions are as strong, if not stronger, than ever. Transdenominational activities are multifold, which in turn makes it easier for Christians to "change cars on the train." All this reflects the steady erosion of traditional denominational loyalties. Lay Christians have "church shopped" for years. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that increasing numbers of pastors are starting to do the same.

Turning to the international picture, there are indications of an apparent thaw in relations between East and West. Pope John Paul II seems eager to bridge the gap between Rome and Orthodoxy, even in his lifetime, and the new Patriarch of Constantinople is following suit. Even Alexy II of Moscow, who is extremely suspicious of Roman intentions, has softened his attitude toward Catholicism. Anglicanism waits as a potential partner to whatever results from these conversations. A change in the papacy could accelerate this new cordiality or bring it to a lurching halt. This is yet another wild card.

The Presiding Bishop of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA), addressing its conference of bishops, focused the domestic issues of America's mainline churches when he raised the question, "Whither denominations?" He pointed to the fact that "all are struggling with financial issues, most are looking at falling membership, most are in some stage of reorganization, and all are wrestling with a question: What is the future of denominations in America?"

A continuing rapprochement by a grab bag of denominations, including the Episcopal Church, and the continued stumbling progress of COCU is either the last gasp of moves toward organic unity by churches in a survival mode, or an opportunity for all of them to refocus on the true meaning of God's mission.

Many observers have noted that the issue facing all of these Christian bodies is not so much their differences, but the differences within their traditions. Irreconcilable conflicts rage between Christians of wildly divergent views, irrespective of the sensibilities of the vast majority in the middle. There is a distinct possibility that in the Episcopal Church, as in all these denominations, a reinvigorated center committed to proclamation of the gospel together with Christian service and action could reassert itself.

While it might be impossible to bring together the extremes of left and right, it is possible that the denominations will change, and change radically. However, the odds are strongly against their complete disappearance in the next 20 years. We applaud William McKinney, a sociologist who asserts that this is the "time for some old churches to think some new thoughts."

The movement toward organic unity, grass-roots cooperation, denominational fragmentation, and possible realignment are all part of the future ecumenical mix.

Meanwhile, a different cauldron is bubbling in the evangelical, charismatic and non-denominational churches. Despite their apparent numerical success, leading evangelical thinkers are voicing increasing concern over the superficiality of their traditions, and the hollowing out of their theological foundations.

Thoughtful conservative Christians, deploring the sentimentality and shallowness of their environment, continue to explore the rootedness of mainline Christianity, especially those traditions with a liturgical and sacramental life. Once more the potential for fragmentation and realignment rears its head.

A further facet of this already confused situation is the dramatic loss of confidence in the major conciliar entities, the National and the World Councils of Churches. They have not focused so much on matters of faith and order as on cooperative ventures that have often been at odds with the convictions of many of their member churches.

Alongside this has been an apparent watering down of Christian distinctives, adding to erosion of confidence in these bodies at the grass-roots. All this has compromised the ability of the NCC and WCC to remain major players in moves toward Christian unity.

This structural messiness is the inevitable outcome of churches' attempting to function in the midst of a major historical transformation. It is impossible to see how the process will play itself out in the next 20 years, and how the churches will react to it. There are too many wild cards in the pack, and even if we could predict what will happen in the Episcopal Church, there is no telling what might happen elsewhere. Whichever way you slice it, major restructuring of churches is inevitable. The open question is when and how.

Could it be that the emerging consensus that the mission of God has to be primary in our search for unity is at the root of a whole new ecumenical climate as the churches in the West come to terms with their status as a counterculture? Such an approach holds out much more hope than a unity that seeks to "cluster" traditions organically, thus continuing the old denominational pattern.

Given the unpredictability alongside differing local, national and international circumstances, how do you see the ecumenical life of the churches shaping up in the next two decades?

The Rt. Rev. Roger White is the Bishop of Milwaukee. The Rev. Richard Kew is coordinator of the Russian Ministry Network.

Ideas and comments may be sent to the authors at 2015, P.O. Box 92936, Milwaukee, WI 53202.